- Tertia Lux
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- Private equity raised. It hasn’t deployed.
Private equity raised. It hasn’t deployed.
$1.2 trillion in dry powder. 4,000 to 6,500 exits stalled.
4,000 to 6,500 exits stalled.
Distributions are light. Vintages are aging out.
Nobody’s pulling the trigger, but the holsters are full.
Trump’s administration is preparing an executive order to allow 401(k) capital into private markets.
The figure is $12 trillion.
The safety is off.
Retail gets the bag. Private equity gets the carry.
Target date funds average 0.28 percent in fees.
Private equity sits at 1.6, before carry.
The difference won’t show up on a quarterly update.
Neither will the mark.
No redemption pressure. No public marks.
No public narrative, unless they need one.
401(k)s don’t complain. They don’t redeem.
They just load.
This isn’t democratization. It’s inventory.
GrabAGun priced at $150 million.
Trump Jr. rang the bell.
It dropped 29 percent in two sessions.
Volume spiked. Retail held the bag.
The insiders cleared.
No institutional anchor. No path to margin.
No reason to list except to exit.
But it moved fast enough for the ones who still believe speed is a moat.
This wasn’t a misfire. It was range-tested.
SumZero awarded $3,750 to a contributor who flagged Samyang Foods under $180.
It’s now above $1,100.
That’s a 520 percent return in twelve months.
The idea was surfaced. The trade was skipped.
Too small. Too foreign. Too inconvenient to explain in a Monday IC memo.
The return was public. The access was prefiltered.
Someone made the shot. The rest stuck to their approved list.
Liquidity isn’t the constraint.
It’s the strategy.
Access isn’t broken.
It’s assigned.
401(k)s are next.
They will not outperform.
They will not rotate.
They will not exit.
Carry will rise.
Powder will build.
The release won’t make a sound.
This is not a failure.
It’s a calibrated reset.
Watch the vintages.
Watch the language.
Watch who reloads before they reprice.