Blue Owl, Genstar, and Apollo are buying.

Private equity investment volume is holding. Exit volume is not.

The buy-to-sell ratio hit 3.14x this year. Highest in a decade.

That’s not momentum. That’s inventory.

Blue Owl’s circling Asda. Apollo’s chasing fuel stations. Genstar’s exploring a $5B exit.

Everyone else is eyeing continuation funds and partials.

Fundraising is spiky. Not strong.

OrbiMed raised $1.86B. Ares closed $1.4B.

But healthcare fundraising is down 23% YoY.

Secondaries led private capital returns with 8.5% last year.

PE followed at 8.4%.

Real estate bled negative.

Twelve VC firms took more than half of all capital raised this year.

The bottom 90% are taking meetings. Not checks.

AI still leads the headlines.

71% of Q1 VC went to it. Median markup multiple was 25.8x.

Exit volume dropped 40%.

Defense deals are moving. Helsing closed $600M.

But even with tailwinds, Europe’s PE activity is flat.

Deployment is lagging.

This isn’t a rotation. It’s a stall.

Capital is being raised. Not allocated.

Strategies are being extended. Not rewarded.

Everyone’s showing commitment.

No one’s showing returns.